KOSPI First Half 2026 Outlook
Analyzing the KOSPI trend for the first half of 2026, focusing on semiconductor cycle recovery and improving foreign investor flows.
Current KOSPI Situation
As of February 2026, the KOSPI is trading within a 2,600–2,700pt range. Expectations for U.S. rate cuts and a semiconductor recovery are driving upside momentum, while won weakness and China's economic uncertainty are holding it back.
Sector Outlook
Semiconductors (Overweight)
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand is expected to remain strong in 2026, driven by expanded AI infrastructure investment.
- Samsung Electronics: Full-scale HBM4 mass production, foundry yield improvement expected
- SK Hynix: Maintaining HBM leadership, wave of target price upgrades
Automotive (Neutral)
Short-term momentum is limited due to slower EV transition pace and U.S. IRA subsidy uncertainty.
Financials (Overweight)
While net interest margin (NIM) faces downward pressure in a rate-cutting cycle, dividend attractiveness is maintained.
Foreign Investor Flow Analysis
Foreign investors have been net buyers of KOSPI since January, with cumulative net purchases exceeding 2 trillion won.
If the USD/KRW exchange rate stabilizes, foreign buying could strengthen further.
Investment Strategy
- Maintain Large-Cap Semiconductor Exposure: Use short-term corrections as buying opportunities
- Dividend Stock Portfolio: Secure stable income sources ahead of the rate-cutting cycle
- FX Risk Hedging: Review dollar-denominated asset allocation